Using the poll aggregator at the Huffington Post, I’ve compiled the current state of the hottest races this cycle, as well as what would happen if Dems shift the numbers a mere two points, then three points:
We can caveat the shit out of the current state of polling and quibble about how well they actually represent reality—but these numbers are a great worst-case scenario, so let’s run with them. And what do they tell us?
In the Senate, if the election was held today and these numbers held up, Republicans would pick up AR, AK, CO, IA, LA, MT, SD, and WV. They would lose Kansas for a net pick up of seven seats, or a 52-48 Mitch McConnell majority. Heck, at that point Kansas Independent Greg Orman would try to caucus with Republicans, and if they took him, that would be a 53-47 GOP majority.
But slide those numbers over just three points—easily doable if we get our “non-likely” voters to the polls, and things change significantly. Suddenly, Republicans are only assured of pickups in AK, LA, MT, and WV, with losses in Kansas and a too-close-to-call race in Arkansas (Blue), Kentucky (Red), and probably South Dakota. Even if they squeaked by in those three states, they’d still be shy of the majority. See Full Story DailyKos.com
Image Credit DailyKos.com
