If you’re a regular reader of FiveThirtyEight you’ll know that our Senate forecast has said pretty much the same thing every day. When we officially launched our model in early September, it gave Republicans a 64 percent chance of winning a majority in the Senate. Today, the number is similar: 63 percent.
Another endangered Democratic incumbent, Mark Begich of Alaska, has also seen marginal improvement in his position. YouGov had Begich trailing by four points against the Republican Dan Sullivan — better than the 6-point deficit they had for him previously. The bigger news for Begich was a Hellenthal & Associates poll released on Friday, which showed Begich with an unlikely seeming 10-point lead over Sullivan. That poll is almost certainly an outlier but it speaks to the uncertainty in the contest; Alaska is notoriously a challenging state to poll.
If we were seeing the same set of results in a presidential election — where there’s both more abundant polling and more accurate polling — Republicans would be much clearer favorites: perhaps somewhere in the range of 75 to 80 percent to take the Senate, about where Obama was in his reelection bid at this point in 2012. Republicans have a great opportunity — most of the key Senate elections are being held in very red states — and are more likely than not to convert on it. But it’s been the same story every day. Republicans have the edge, but they haven’t been able to put Democrats away. See Full Story at FiveThirtyEight.com
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