A survey of business leaders in Anchorage found that most were still optimistic about parts of Anchorage’s economy, but overall confidence in the economy had dropped and was slightly pessimistic as compared to years past. This year was the first time the confidence had dropped below 50 percent since 2010. The barriers for growth come as no surprise, with 77 percent of respondents saying the state economy is as large barrier for economic growth. Availability of a professional/technical workforce is also a large barrier, as well as the national economy. The changes to health insurance laws and the cost of labor round out the top concerns for local business leaders. In short, businesses feel good about where they are and what they are doing in 2015, but do not have the same optimism for the economy as a whole.
The prediction for 2015 is as follows:
- Oil and Gas- decline -100
- There are still 15,000 statewide oil and gas industry jobs and the small decline does not reflect projects being cancelled, only a shift from 2014 staffing
- Health care- growth +300
- continues to be a growing field in Anchorage
- Transportation- flat +0
- AEDC feels there could be a small bump in transportation in 2015 because of air cargo, but will wait to see if the climate remains positive for Alaskan transportation
- Professional and business services- flat +0
- Construction- decline -100
- there has been positive growth in Anchorage construction, but capital projects are decreasing, which will have an effect on the overall construction jobs number
- Leisure and hospitality- growth +100
- Retail trade- growth +300
- continues to be strong due to national retailers entering Anchorage as well as local businesses increasing their footprint
- Financial activities- decline -100
- Government- decline -500
- we will continue to see a decline in Federal jobs in Anchorage, but state government will account for a good portion of the decrease predicted
- Other sectors- growth +100
- Overall- flat +0
We all know that much depends on oil prices and future production as well as the 2016 state budget. Alaskans need to understand that there is a lot of work to be done to build the state economy and that difficult decisions will need to be made by Governor Walker and the Legislature. This is a serious issue, but solutions for increasing revenue and curbing spending are out there. The solutions are long-term strategies and require a good, hard look at the state’s budget process for both revenue and spending. For the AEDC Report & Slides
Via alaskanomics.com
