The U.S. Army’s decision to reduce personnel at Joint Base Elmendorf-Richardson by 2,600 troops sent shock waves through Anchorage when the announcement came July 9.
However, after several days of thinking through the implications, community leaders and some economists think the actual effects of the reduction of the reduction will be relatively light.
“Do we like this decision? No. It is the end of the world? No,” said Bill Popp, president of Anchorage Economic Development Corp.
Jonathan King, president of Northern Economics, an Anchorage-based consulting firm, said his initial assessment is that the economic effects will be felt to some degree, but muted by geography. “If you own a barbershop on Muldoon Road in northeast Anchorage you’ll feel an effect. If you live in south Anchorage you won’t feel it at all,” King said. His estimate of job losses, including direct and indirect, is 4,500.
University of Alaska Anchorage economist Scott Goldsmith arrived at a higher estimate of job losses, 6,000, by factoring in rising pay for Alaska military personnel in recent years, which would increase the “multiplier” effect in the economy of reduced payroll, as well as rough estimates of civilian defense employees. Both he and King said their estimates were rough, however.
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