For the first time in 3 years, Favorite Son and I made our annual trek to the Great Alaska Sportsman Show. This year the location here in Anchorage was in the Dena’ina Convention Center. Parking was left to the discretion of the attendee, and the hours changed. Total attendance appeared to be down significantly from 2019, the last year it was held, as were the number of vendors partaking. All in all, it was great to simply attend our annual rite of spring after the Zombie Apocalypse.
As usual, I did see some notable things, which, viewed through a persuasion glass may or may not be Good Things.
First and best of all, the no fun organization, Trout Unlimited, which has fought tooth and nail against all resource development here in Alaska for decades was nowhere to be found. I particularly despise them for lobbying the Board of Fish to pass a rule prohibiting felt sole wading boots a decade or two ago. Rationale was the presence of whirling disease, a deadly trout parasite prevalent in the Lower 48 making its way into Alaskan waters. Problem is that whirling disease was (and has) never positively identified in Alaskan rivers and streams. In the Lower 48, it is supposedly spread from stream to stream via mud in felt-soled wading boots. Nobody ever proved it up here and felt-soled wading boots are really useful in rocky streams like the Russian River. Felt-soled boots go away, and fishing there gets a lot more interesting. Trout Unlimited also participated in the Pebble Mine wars, sadly successfully.
The second group was an advocacy group in support of commercial hatcheries. The people there were all young. And they all are well aware that they have a problem, under increasing pressure from sport fishermen, subsistence and personal use users, worried that their yearly dumping of a billion or two pink fry into Prince William Sound was harming returns of wild salmon (king, coho, chum and red).
While they know they have a problem, they are clueless about how to address it. Being hired advocates, they are approaching the problem from a “gotta get my message right” perspective. Their problem is that they have already lost the argument, as have the commercial hatcheries. Ocean ranching, the dumping of hatchery fry into the ocean, letting them fend for themselves, and harvesting whatever returns, is quickly becoming an identifiable, provable vector for destruction of wild salmon runs, particularly in Prince William Sound with Cook Inlet not far behind.
The commercial hatcheries have lost the argument and the persuasion war, and don’t know how to get from where they are today (ocean ranching) to where they want to be (a sustainable business model that does not impact wild salmon runs). Sadly, they and the people who pay them are sticking their fingers in their ears, singing “la, la, la, la, la, la” as loudly and long as possible.
There is a way out. Craig Medred has written long and eloquently about the problem and suggested solutions. The sooner the commercial hatcheries adopt Medred’s suggestions (onshore or offshore fish farming), the better chance they have for a soft landing and a continued business. Sadly, they appear not to realize they are in the deep trouble they currently are.
Finally, we have the anti-Pebble crowd. After supposedly winning the argument against the mine, they are back at the show with the same sort of happy youngsters and the same message. One wonders what they are worried about.
From here, they ought to be worried, for Pebble will be back, this time as a rare earth’s mine (the minerals that are found alongside gold and copper). When that happens, the current anti-Pebble crowd will be using the same arguments that won the argument the last time around, completely oblivious that this is a new war, with new facts, and new national imperatives. Their anti-Pebble arguments will empower China, a poor lifestyle choice for Americans interested in so-called renewable energy and electric vehicles.
If the pro-Pebble people learned the lessons so painfully documented by Mark Hamilton in his 15-part Pebbled series in Must Read Alaska, they will be successful the next time around. First and foremost, they must remember that this is a persuasion war, and the anti’s are well positioned and well-funded. It matters not if you have all the solutions or answers, if you are viewed as self-officious jerks, contemptuous of the locals, they will (and should) destroy you.
On the other hand, if you can craft your message presenting the argument as either the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) or us, then you have a good opening bid and a place to operate from, the high ground maneuver, deadly in the persuasion world. My prediction is that Pebble will be back. It will be built, if for no other reason than the greens are demanding what comes out of it (rare earth metals are central to any and all renewable energy schemes).
All in all, it was a productive visit. Many, many opportunities for a positive persuasion approach to change things here in Alaska for the better, particularly in mining and commercial hatcheries. Think of it as free money sitting on the table. Will be most interesting to see who can reach out and grab that free money and move us forward.
Alex Gimarc lives in Anchorage since retiring from the military in 1997. His interests include science and technology, environment, energy, economics, military affairs, fishing and disabilities policies. His weekly column “Interesting Items” is a summary of news stories with substantive Alaska-themed topics. He was a small business owner and Information Technology professional.
